Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks

Most mathematical models for the spread of disease use differential equations based on uniform mixing assumptions or ad hoc models for the contact process. Here we explore the use of dynamic bipartite graphs to model the physical contact patterns that result from movements of individuals between specific locations. The graphs are generated by large-scale individual-based urban traffic simulations built on actual census, land-use and population-mobility data. We find that the contact network among people is a strongly connected small-world-like graph with a well-defined scale for the degree distribution. However, the locations graph is scale-free, which allows highly efficient outbreak detection by placing sensors in the hubs of the locations network. Within this large-scale simulation framework, we then analyse the relative merits of several proposed mitigation strategies for smallpox spread. Our results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.     

青格达湖湿地原生动物的群落生态学研究

文章研究报道了青格达湖湿地原生动物的种类组成、优势类群、相似性系数等,与中国典型地带土壤原生动物做了比较。结果共观察到原生动物4个纲6个目8个科10个属17个种。     

Structure of HIV-1 gp120 V1/V2 domain with broadly neutralizing antibody PG9

Variable regions 1 and 2 (V1/V2) of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) gp120 envelope glycoprotein are critical for viral evasion of antibody neutralization, and are themselves protected by extraordinary sequence diversity and N-linked glycosylation. Human antibodies such as PG9 nonetheless engage V1/V2 and neutralize 80% of HIV-1 isolates. Here we report the structure of V1/V2 in complex with PG9. V1/V2 forms a four-stranded β-sheet domain, in which sequence diversity and glycosylation are largely segregated to strand-connecting loops. PG9 recognition involves electrostatic, sequence-independent and glycan interactions: the latter account for over half the interactive surface but are of sufficiently weak affinity to avoid autoreactivity. The structures of V1/V2-directed antibodies CH04 and PGT145 indicate that they share a common mode of glycan penetration by extended anionic loops. In addition to structurally defining V1/V2, the results thus identify a paradigm of antibody recognition for highly glycosylated antigens, which-with PG9-involves a site of vulnerability comprising just two glycans and a strand.     

Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?

A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiobjective Optimal Water ResourcesManagement for a Large River Basin

1IntroductionTiledesigllalldof)erati()lloftilt.egratedmultiplewatersuppliesandhydroelectricfacilitiestol>ostutilizea1'egi()llalt-c'aterresourcecallcollstituteacolllplexanddifficultoptimizationprohleln.involvingill('tilt(-'r;\('tiollofI)oliti('alalldlegalprocesses,institutiollalregulat,ionsalldengilleerillgecollolllics.Tllolastqllart('rofa(}elltur}'11aswitllessedasigllificantdevelopmelltofoptimizatiollalgol'itllllls.Tillsif('ti\.it}'ilasI>een1llotivatedbytwomajorfactorsftherapidevolutiollofcom…     

A glia-derived acetylcholine-binding protein that modulates synaptic transmission

There is accumulating evidence that glial cells actively modulate neuronal synaptic transmission. We identified a glia-derived soluble acetylcholine-binding protein (AChBP), which is a naturally occurring analogue of the ligand-binding domains of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs). Like the nAChRs, it assembles into a homopentamer with ligand-binding characteristics that are typical for a nicotinic receptor; unlike the nAChRs, however, it lacks the domains to form a transmembrane ion channel. Presynaptic release of acetylcholine induces the secretion of AChBP through the glial secretory pathway. We describe a molecular and cellular mechanism by which glial cells release AChBP in the synaptic cleft, and propose a model for how they actively regulate cholinergic transmission between neurons in the central nervous system.